Young CS grads were already getting hit by 2024

American Community Survey via IPUMS, 2009–2024  ·  Ages 22–27, bachelor's degree holders, not enrolled in school

Unemployment nearly doubled from its 2022 low

CS grads, age 22–27

Unemployment rate, CS grads age 22–27
Source: ACS via IPUMS USA. Unemployed = has no job and is actively looking.

Unemployment among young CS grads bottomed at 3.7% in 2022 — the lowest in our 15-year window.

By 2024 it had risen to 6.4% — nearly double the 2022 low, and the highest since 2010.

One explanation for the elevated unemployment rate: the share of CS grads not in the labor forcePeople who are neither employed nor actively looking for work — students, retirees, stay-at-home parents, and discouraged workers who've stopped searching. The unemployment rate only counts people who are actively job-hunting. (dashed line) has declined.

Unemployment can rise two ways: more people looking and not finding work, or fewer people dropping out of the labor force entirely. The not-in-labor-force (NILF) share did fall sharply — from 10.6% in 2013 to 5% by 2022. But that decline happened in the decade before the spike we're looking at.

Between 2022 and 2024 the not-in-labor-force rate barely moved: 5.0% to 4.8%. The unemployment spike isn't a story of more people entering the labor force — the employed share fell by almost exactly as much as unemployment rose.

The Humanities didn't get hit

Unemployment rate by field, 2022 vs. 2024, with share of grads working in software and engineering roles

Unemployment rate by field, age 22–27
2022
2024
Bubble size = number of degree holders. Tech occ bar = % employed in software and engineering roles (2022–24). Source: ACS via IPUMS USA.

Each field gets a dot for 2022 (faded) and 2024 (solid). Dot size shows how many people hold that degree — Humanities is by far the biggest, Mathematics the smallest.

In 2022, unemployment ranged from 1.7% (Business) to 3.7% (CS).

By 2024, CS moved from 3.7% to 6.4% — the biggest jump of any field. Engineering moved from 2.2% to 4.1%. Mathematics from 3.2% to 5.5%.

Humanities: 3.2% to 3.8%. Business: 1.7% to 2.8%.

63% of employed CS grads and 60% of Engineering grads work in software and engineering rolesSoftware developers, computer systems analysts, information security analysts, computer programmers, web developers, network admins, and related roles (OCC2010 1000–1107); plus aerospace, electrical, mechanical, civil, and other engineering roles (OCC2010 1300–1530).. For Humanities grads that number is 6%.

Within CS, junior workers took the hardest hit

Unemployment rate by career stage, 2009–2024

CS unemployment rate by age group
Age 22–27
Age 28–34
Age 35–50
Source: ACS via IPUMS USA.

During the 2008–10 financial crisis, young CS workers' unemployment spiked from 5.1% to 7.0%. Mid-career and established workers barely moved.

COVID (2019–21) barely touched young CS workers — their unemployment actually fell slightly. It nudged up modestly for mid-career and established workers.

2022–24 is different. All three groups rose — but young workers rose the most.

From the 2022 low to 2024:

Ages 22–27: 3.7% → 6.4%  +2.7pp
Ages 28–34: 2.8% → 4.3%  +1.5pp
Ages 35–50: 1.7% → 2.7%  +1.0pp